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The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, June 2024 Update. San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver … – WOLF STREET

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New Highs: Boston, New York, Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington DC, Chicago… Rate-Cut Mania subsides, price growth begins to slow.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Rate-Cut Mania, which started in November and peaked in February, left its imprint on the housing market. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released today and dubbed “April,” is a three-month moving average of home prices whose sales were entered into public records in February, March, and April. So that’s still in the Rate-Cut Mania time-frame. Since then, Rate-Cut Mania has largely subsided, and home sales have plunged.

On a month-to-month basis, the 20-City Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose by 1.4% in “April” (moving average of February, March, and April), a deceleration from the 1.6% jump in the prior month:

  • Month-to-month, prices rose in all 20 metros covered by the index, ranging from +0.1% for condos in the New York Metro to 2.2% for single-family houses in the Boston metro.
  • Year-over-year, the 20-City Index was up 7.2%, a deceleration from the 7.5% increase in “March” and from 7.4% in “February.”
  • Compared to the previous all-time high of June 2022, the index was up 3.5%.

Prices were below their 2022 highs in 7 of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller index (month of peak):

  1. San Francisco Bay Area: -7.9% (May 2022)
  2. Seattle: -6.3% (May 2022)
  3. Phoenix:  -5.0% (June 2022)
  4. Portland:  -4.4% (May 2022)
  5. Denver:  -3.7% (May 2022)
  6. Dallas: -3.0% (June 2022)
  7. Las Vegas: -2.5% (July 2022)

The most splendid housing bubbles by metro.

San Francisco Bay Area single family houses: the San Francisco metro in the Case-Shiller Index covers a five-county portion of the nine-county Bay Area.

  • Month to month: +2.0%
  • Year over year: +4.7%.
  • From the peak in May 2022: -7.9%.

San Francisco Bay Area condos: Condos are a big part of the market in the Bay Area, particularly in San Francisco itself.

  • Month to month: +0.8%.
  • Year over year: +0.7%.
  • From the peak in May 2022: -9.0%.
  • Just a hair above May-August 2018.

Seattle metro:

  • Month to month: +2.0%.
  • Year over year: +7.5%.
  • From the peak in May 2022: -6.3%.

Phoenix metro:

  • Month to month: +0.6%.
  • Year over year: +4.8%.
  • From the peak in June 2022: -5.0%.

Portland metro:

  • Month to month: +1.1%.
  • Year over year: +1.7%.
  • From the peak in May 2022: -4.4%.

Denver metro:

  • Month to month: +1.3%.
  • Year over year: +2.0%.
  • From the peak in May 2022: -3.7%.

Dallas metro:

  • Month to month: +1.2%.
  • Year over year: +3.4%.
  • From the peak in June 2022: -3.0%.

Las Vegas metro:

  • Month to month: +1.2%.
  • Year over year: +8.3%.
  • From the peak in July 2022: -2.5%.

Tampa metro: 

  • Month to month: +0.7%.
  • Year over year: +3.6%.
  • Eked past its July 2022 high by 0.5%

Los Angeles metro

  • Month to month: +1.3%.
  • Year over year: +8.6%.
  • From prior high in May 2022: +4.0%

San Diego metro:

  • Month to month: +1.2%.
  • Year over year: +10.1%.
  • From prior high in May 2022: +3.6%

Washington D.C. metro:

  • Month to month: +0.9%.
  • Year over year: +6.4%.
  • From prior high in June 2022: +4.7%.

Boston metro:

  • Month to month: +2.2%.
  • Year over year: +7.9%.
  • From prior peak in June 2022: +3.9%

New York metro:

  • Month to month: +1.3%.
  • Year over year: +9.4%.
  • From prior peak in June 2022: +11.4%

Miami metro:

  • Month to month: +1.3%.
  • Year over year: +9.4%.
  • From prior peak in July 2022: +11.4%

To qualify for the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles, the metro must have experienced home-price inflation since 2000 of about 200% or more at the peak. The indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. Today’s index value for San Diego of 443 is up 343% since 2000, making San Diego the most splendid housing bubble on this list, ahead of Miami and Los Angeles.

Home-Price Inflation. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to when the same houses were sold previously. Price changes are weighted based on how long ago the prior sale occurred. Adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (37-page methodology). By measuring how many dollars it takes to buy the same house over time, the Case-Shiller index is a measure of home-price inflation. San Diego had 343% home price inflation since 2000. Over the same period, the consumer price inflation, as measured by CPI, amounted to 86%.

The remaining 6 of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller index (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland) had less home-price inflation since 2000, despite the price spikes in recent years, and don’t qualify for this list.

Chicago, with an index value of 205 is up by 105% from the year 2000, and therefore far from qualifying for this list. But the 44% price spike since the Fed started its money-printing binge in March 2020 has been splendid nevertheless, so here it is anyway:

  • Month to month: +1.7%
  • Year over year: +8.7%.
  • From the prior high in July 2022: +8.5%

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